Collective2 Collective2
Featured Strategy Quant AI pro +14.8% Cumul. Return since Dec 2, 2024 Hypothetical

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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more
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Trades-Own-Strategy Certification

This system has earned Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification. This means that the manager of this system trades his own strategy in a real-life, funded brokerage account.

Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification Details
Certification process started 07/14/2023
Most recent certification approved 7/14/23 9:33 ET
Trades at broker Interactive Brokers (Stocks, Options, Futures)
Scaling percentage used 100%
# trading signals issued by system since certification 2,718
# trading signals executed in manager's Interactive Brokers (Stocks, Options, Futures) account 2,718
Percent signals followed since 07/14/2023 100%
This information was last updated 12/23/24 19:48 ET

Warning: System trading results are still hypothetical.

Even though the system developer is currently trading his own system in a real-life brokerage account, the trading results presented on this Web site must still be regarded as purely hypothetical results. This is because (among other reasons) the system developer may not have traded all signals, particularly those that occurred before 07/14/2023, and the system developer's results may not match the system results presented here. In addition, not all subscribers have received the same trades or prices as the system manager has. For these reasons, and others, it is extremely important you remember the following:

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

You may be interested to learn more technical details about how Collective2 calculates the hypothetical results you see on this web site.

MFG 50K Portfolio
(145176913)

Powered by BrokerTransmit.
Read important disclosures.

Created by: NaoufelTaief NaoufelTaief
Started: 07/2023
Stocks
Last trade: 3 days ago
Trading style: Equity Momentum

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $149.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Momentum
Category: Equity

Momentum

Aims to capitalize on the continuance of existing trends in the market. Trader takes a long position in an asset in an upward trend, and short-sells a security that has been in a downward trend. While similar to Trend-following, tends to be more forward-looking (predicting oncoming trend), while Momentum is more backward-looking (observing already-established price direction).
29.0%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(25.5%)
Max Drawdown
874
Num Trades
44.5%
Win Trades
1.2 : 1
Profit Factor
55.6%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023                                          +3.0%(3%)(8.4%)(6.1%)+31.5%+5.6%+19.3%
2024+12.0%+14.3%(9.5%)(11.6%)+13.3%+6.0%+2.7%(3.8%)(2.5%)(1.7%)+0.8%+3.7%+21.7%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 24 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 2,718 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
12/13/24 15:13 AAPL APPLE LONG 284 249.35 12/19 13:19 250.34 0.61%
Trade id #150322806
Max drawdown($456)
Time12/18/24 0:00
Quant open284
Worst price247.74
Drawdown as % of equity-0.61%
 $276
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.68
12/17/24 9:30 COST COSTCO WHOLESALE LONG 20 993.78 12/18 15:44 966.32 0.77%
Trade id #150342297
Max drawdown($564)
Time12/18/24 15:44
Quant open20
Worst price965.54
Drawdown as % of equity-0.77%
 ($549)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.40
12/11/24 12:47 SPOT SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY SA LONG 31 474.73 12/18 15:35 449.02 1.1%
Trade id #150302541
Max drawdown($800)
Time12/18/24 15:35
Quant open31
Worst price448.90
Drawdown as % of equity-1.10%
 ($798)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.62
12/18/24 15:27 SHOP SHOPIFY INC SHORT 6 111.80 12/18 15:29 111.56 n/a $1
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.12
12/12/24 12:04 SHOP SHOPIFY INC LONG 342 117.74 12/18 15:27 115.49 1.42%
Trade id #150311666
Max drawdown($1,035)
Time12/18/24 15:27
Quant open170
Worst price111.65
Drawdown as % of equity-1.42%
 ($775)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.84
12/16/24 11:30 TSLA TESLA INC. LONG 156 463.21 12/17 13:01 466.38 0.68%
Trade id #150334929
Max drawdown($507)
Time12/17/24 12:01
Quant open89
Worst price457.51
Drawdown as % of equity-0.68%
 $492
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.12
12/16/24 14:27 APP APPLOVIN CORPORATION CLASS A LONG 60 347.41 12/17 10:04 325.22 1.84%
Trade id #150337379
Max drawdown($1,374)
Time12/17/24 10:02
Quant open60
Worst price324.51
Drawdown as % of equity-1.84%
 ($1,332)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.20
12/16/24 14:30 ETHE GRAYSCALE ETHEREUM TRUST (ETH) LONG 206 33.93 12/17 10:00 33.76 0.15%
Trade id #150337402
Max drawdown($112)
Time12/17/24 9:40
Quant open206
Worst price33.38
Drawdown as % of equity-0.15%
 ($38)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.12
12/16/24 11:30 GBTC GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST (BTC) LONG 101 84.88 12/16 13:51 85.24 0.04%
Trade id #150334931
Max drawdown($32)
Time12/16/24 11:49
Quant open101
Worst price84.55
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 $35
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.02
12/13/24 12:30 META META PLATFORMS INC. CLASS A LONG 16 618.74 12/16 11:00 621.19 0.04%
Trade id #150321668
Max drawdown($29)
Time12/13/24 13:19
Quant open16
Worst price616.89
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 $39
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.32
11/21/24 12:14 AAPL APPLE LONG 712 236.71 12/13 12:33 240.69 0.33%
Trade id #150145050
Max drawdown($225)
Time11/22/24 0:00
Quant open158
Worst price228.06
Drawdown as % of equity-0.33%
 $2,819
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $14.24
12/12/24 10:30 ETHE GRAYSCALE ETHEREUM TRUST (ETH) LONG 209 33.42 12/13 10:00 33.23 0.3%
Trade id #150309701
Max drawdown($224)
Time12/12/24 14:43
Quant open209
Worst price32.35
Drawdown as % of equity-0.30%
 ($45)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.18
12/11/24 13:30 SHOP SHOPIFY INC LONG 170 117.50 12/12 10:00 117.30 0.44%
Trade id #150302787
Max drawdown($322)
Time12/12/24 9:30
Quant open170
Worst price115.60
Drawdown as % of equity-0.44%
 ($37)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.40
12/9/24 10:30 NFLX NETFLIX LONG 21 910.43 12/12 10:00 930.80 0.23%
Trade id #150279010
Max drawdown($164)
Time12/9/24 11:10
Quant open21
Worst price902.59
Drawdown as % of equity-0.23%
 $428
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.42
12/10/24 11:30 TSLA TESLA INC. LONG 78 402.77 12/11 12:03 409.50 0.24%
Trade id #150290323
Max drawdown($177)
Time12/10/24 11:41
Quant open78
Worst price400.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.24%
 $523
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.56
12/9/24 10:32 TSLA TESLA INC. LONG 144 386.06 12/9 13:32 384.49 1.14%
Trade id #150279108
Max drawdown($828)
Time12/9/24 11:10
Quant open103
Worst price378.01
Drawdown as % of equity-1.14%
 ($229)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.88
12/4/24 12:00 SHOP SHOPIFY INC LONG 178 114.38 12/9 10:00 117.29 0.44%
Trade id #150243811
Max drawdown($316)
Time12/4/24 14:22
Quant open178
Worst price112.60
Drawdown as % of equity-0.44%
 $514
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.56
12/4/24 11:00 PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS LONG 28 403.79 12/9 9:51 403.39 0.09%
Trade id #150242333
Max drawdown($62)
Time12/5/24 0:00
Quant open28
Worst price401.57
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 ($12)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.56
12/5/24 11:00 TSLA TESLA INC. LONG 86 369.47 12/6 11:01 372.76 0.35%
Trade id #150251970
Max drawdown($254)
Time12/5/24 14:02
Quant open86
Worst price366.51
Drawdown as % of equity-0.35%
 $281
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.72
12/4/24 10:30 NVDA NVIDIA LONG 284 142.99 12/6 10:30 144.98 0.04%
Trade id #150241958
Max drawdown($28)
Time12/4/24 10:55
Quant open152
Worst price141.62
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
 $561
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.68
12/2/24 10:30 QLD PROSHARES ULTRA QQQ LONG 181 110.24 12/6 9:30 113.59 0.12%
Trade id #150222066
Max drawdown($83)
Time12/3/24 0:00
Quant open181
Worst price109.78
Drawdown as % of equity-0.12%
 $603
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.62
12/4/24 11:30 NFLX NETFLIX LONG 21 909.46 12/5 15:30 921.37 0.06%
Trade id #150242770
Max drawdown($42)
Time12/4/24 11:33
Quant open21
Worst price907.44
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 $250
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.42
12/5/24 11:00 GBTC GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST (BTC) LONG 104 80.55 12/5 11:30 80.62 0%
Trade id #150251975
Max drawdown($3)
Time12/5/24 11:08
Quant open104
Worst price80.52
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 $5
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.08
12/5/24 10:30 ETHE GRAYSCALE ETHEREUM TRUST (ETH) LONG 214 32.66 12/5 11:00 32.70 0.03%
Trade id #150251582
Max drawdown($21)
Time12/5/24 10:50
Quant open214
Worst price32.56
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
 $6
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.28
12/5/24 10:00 GBTC GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST (BTC) LONG 109 82.42 12/5 10:42 80.69 0.28%
Trade id #150251254
Max drawdown($199)
Time12/5/24 10:42
Quant open109
Worst price80.59
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
 ($191)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.18
12/4/24 10:30 ETHE GRAYSCALE ETHEREUM TRUST (ETH) LONG 217 32.26 12/5 10:22 32.77 0.26%
Trade id #150241956
Max drawdown($182)
Time12/4/24 11:52
Quant open217
Worst price31.41
Drawdown as % of equity-0.26%
 $106
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.34
12/2/24 9:30 COST COSTCO WHOLESALE LONG 20 967.96 12/5 9:30 988.84 0.09%
Trade id #150220791
Max drawdown($63)
Time12/2/24 9:36
Quant open20
Worst price964.76
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 $418
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.40
12/4/24 10:00 AMZN AMAZON.COM LONG 45 218.24 12/4 14:00 217.34 0.06%
Trade id #150241481
Max drawdown($44)
Time12/4/24 14:00
Quant open45
Worst price217.24
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 ($42)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.90
12/2/24 11:30 PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS LONG 30 388.51 12/3 12:30 390.56 0.07%
Trade id #150223476
Max drawdown($49)
Time12/3/24 9:33
Quant open30
Worst price386.86
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 $61
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.60
11/22/24 11:07 TSLA TESLA INC. LONG 135 353.27 12/3 10:30 351.76 1.78%
Trade id #150153781
Max drawdown($1,221)
Time11/27/24 0:00
Quant open45
Worst price326.59
Drawdown as % of equity-1.78%
 ($207)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.70
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    7/11/2023
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $70,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    531.21
  • Age
    18 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    874
  • # Profitable
    389
  • % Profitable
    44.50%
  • Avg trade duration
    1.6 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    25.47%
  • drawdown period
    March 08, 2024 - May 01, 2024
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    29.0%
  • Avg win
    $371.04
  • Avg loss
    $238.62
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $22,530
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $24,031
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.25:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.95
  • Sortino Ratio
    1.66
  • Calmar Ratio
    1.699
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    10.60%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.40630
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    34.57%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    29.0%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    13.30%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    0.10%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.31%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.290%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    0.90%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    36.5%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    23.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    4.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    569
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    629
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    1
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    497
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    561
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    Yes
  • TOS percent
    100%
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $239
  • Avg Win
    $371
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $115,729.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    18
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $144,334.000
  • # Winners
    389
  • Num Months Winners
    10
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    107
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    75865
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    485
  • % Winners
    44.5%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    2311.93
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    38.53
  • Avg Trade Length
    1.6 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    0
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.46
  • Daily leverage (max)
    5.27
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.03
  • Beta
    0.73
  • Treynor Index
    0.10
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.00
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.32
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    52.217
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.322
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.355
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.026
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.33728
  • SD
    0.32189
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.04781
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.99438
  • df
    15.00000
  • t
    1.20990
  • p
    0.31302
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.70630
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.76889
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.73990
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.72865
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.49111
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    4.43204
  • Upside part of mean
    0.60007
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.26279
  • Upside SD
    0.29713
  • Downside SD
    0.13539
  • N nonnegative terms
    8.00000
  • N negative terms
    8.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    16.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.21246
  • Mean of criterion
    0.33728
  • SD of predictor
    0.11623
  • SD of criterion
    0.32189
  • Covariance
    0.02577
  • r
    0.68873
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.90743
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.06797
  • Mean Square Error
    0.05835
  • DF error
    14.00000
  • t(b)
    3.55443
  • p(b)
    0.15563
  • t(a)
    -0.28529
  • p(a)
    0.53801
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.75646
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    3.05839
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.57897
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.44303
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.17682
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.06797
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.28764
  • SD
    0.30480
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.94368
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.89556
  • df
    15.00000
  • t
    1.08967
  • p
    0.32971
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.80141
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.65875
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.83180
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.62293
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.03376
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.95607
  • Upside part of mean
    0.55951
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.27188
  • Upside SD
    0.27201
  • Downside SD
    0.14143
  • N nonnegative terms
    8.00000
  • N negative terms
    8.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    16.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.20392
  • Mean of criterion
    0.28764
  • SD of predictor
    0.11552
  • SD of criterion
    0.30480
  • Covariance
    0.02416
  • r
    0.68611
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.81039
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.08153
  • Mean Square Error
    0.05268
  • DF error
    14.00000
  • t(b)
    3.52879
  • p(b)
    0.15695
  • t(a)
    -0.36297
  • p(a)
    0.54828
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.71004
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    2.91074
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.56331
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.40024
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.15888
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.08153
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.11375
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.14530
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.05104
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.09193
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    16.00000
  • Minimum
    0.88593
  • Quartile 1
    0.96687
  • Median
    1.01238
  • Quartile 3
    1.08687
  • Maximum
    1.25742
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.93132
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.98574
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.05611
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.14857
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.12000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.41745
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.07922
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.12656
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    3.21298
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.08655
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    3.00000
  • Minimum
    0.05774
  • Quartile 1
    0.07447
  • Median
    0.09119
  • Quartile 3
    0.12552
  • Maximum
    0.15986
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.05774
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.09119
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.15986
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.05106
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.39230
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.37101
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    2.32085
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    2.32085
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    2.55344
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.31404
  • SD
    0.22060
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.42354
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.42060
  • df
    363.00000
  • t
    1.67792
  • p
    0.04711
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.24347
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.08864
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.24544
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.08664
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.54581
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.80230
  • Upside part of mean
    1.33253
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.01849
  • Upside SD
    0.18356
  • Downside SD
    0.12336
  • N nonnegative terms
    168.00000
  • N negative terms
    196.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    364.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.19368
  • Mean of criterion
    0.31404
  • SD of predictor
    0.12476
  • SD of criterion
    0.22060
  • Covariance
    0.01096
  • r
    0.39830
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.70432
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.17800
  • Mean Square Error
    0.04106
  • DF error
    362.00000
  • t(b)
    8.26188
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    1.02852
  • p(a)
    0.15220
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.53667
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.87196
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.16200
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.51725
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.44588
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.17763
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.28984
  • SD
    0.21880
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.32466
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.32192
  • df
    363.00000
  • t
    1.56136
  • p
    0.05965
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.34183
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.98941
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.34369
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.98753
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.32244
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.54450
  • Upside part of mean
    1.31595
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.02611
  • Upside SD
    0.18025
  • Downside SD
    0.12480
  • N nonnegative terms
    168.00000
  • N negative terms
    196.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    364.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.18582
  • Mean of criterion
    0.28984
  • SD of predictor
    0.12487
  • SD of criterion
    0.21880
  • Covariance
    0.01089
  • r
    0.39841
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.69810
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.16012
  • Mean Square Error
    0.04039
  • DF error
    362.00000
  • t(b)
    8.26449
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    0.93514
  • p(a)
    0.17517
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.53199
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.86422
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.17660
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.49682
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.41518
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.16012
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02091
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02641
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00941
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01781
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    364.00000
  • Minimum
    0.95491
  • Quartile 1
    0.99437
  • Median
    0.99984
  • Quartile 3
    1.00601
  • Maximum
    1.06361
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98734
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99734
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00201
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01853
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01164
  • Number outliers low
    6.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.01648
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.96386
  • Number of outliers high
    23.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.06319
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.03729
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.20263
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01292
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01957
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.15364
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01120
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01579
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    18.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00139
  • Quartile 1
    0.00647
  • Median
    0.01578
  • Quartile 3
    0.03258
  • Maximum
    0.22017
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00411
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00990
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.02490
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.12022
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02612
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.16667
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.16801
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -2.68465
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.09459
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.09542
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.73002
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.15849
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.18082
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.39945
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.37403
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.69880
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    3.11111
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    14.16270
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.03462
  • SD
    0.15641
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.22135
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.22007
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.15651
  • p
    0.50686
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.99292
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.55095
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.99200
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.55187
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.30956
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    7.84463
  • Upside part of mean
    0.87734
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.91196
  • Upside SD
    0.10851
  • Downside SD
    0.11184
  • N nonnegative terms
    62.00000
  • N negative terms
    69.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.17256
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.03462
  • SD of predictor
    0.14182
  • SD of criterion
    0.15641
  • Covariance
    0.00795
  • r
    0.35830
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.39517
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.10281
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02149
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    4.35894
  • p(b)
    0.27688
  • t(a)
    -0.49453
  • p(a)
    0.52768
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.21580
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.57453
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.51415
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.30852
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.08761
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.10281
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.04677
  • SD
    0.15649
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.29884
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.29711
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.21131
  • p
    0.50926
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.07041
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.47369
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.06916
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.47493
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.41414
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    7.71683
  • Upside part of mean
    0.87143
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.91820
  • Upside SD
    0.10751
  • Downside SD
    0.11293
  • N nonnegative terms
    62.00000
  • N negative terms
    69.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.16248
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.04677
  • SD of predictor
    0.14217
  • SD of criterion
    0.15649
  • Covariance
    0.00802
  • r
    0.36049
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.39680
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.11124
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02147
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    4.38953
  • p(b)
    0.27558
  • t(a)
    -0.53544
  • p(a)
    0.52997
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.02100
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.21795
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.57565
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.52228
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.29980
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.11786
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.11124
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01595
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01991
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00830
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01587
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.96357
  • Quartile 1
    0.99473
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00483
  • Maximum
    1.03332
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98816
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99825
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00162
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01192
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01009
  • Number outliers low
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.01527
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97089
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.02290
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.02746
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.04409
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01145
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01565
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.00158
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01214
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01638
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.02359
  • Quartile 1
    0.05237
  • Median
    0.08114
  • Quartile 3
    0.10991
  • Maximum
    0.13869
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.02359
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.13869
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.05755
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.50%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -379182000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    54
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.01877
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.01868
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.13471
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.13471
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -0.93820

Strategy Description

The **MFG 50K Algos** are a suite of algorithmic trading strategies developed by Naoufel Taief , based on the methodologies taught in the *Mining for Gold* course. These algorithms are designed to identify and exploit break out trading opportunities across high beta stocks. They employ advanced statistical analysis and data mining techniques to uncover hidden patterns and trends, enabling traders to make informed decisions with minimal human intervention. The strategies emphasize robust risk management and adaptability to changing market conditions, aiming for consistent, long-term profitability. For more information on the *Mining for Gold* course, visit [Trading Dominion University](https://university.tradingdominion.com/p/mining-for-gold).
Trade this strategy at Interactive Brokers

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2023-07-11
Suggested Minimum Capital
$70,000
# Trades
874
# Profitable
389
% Profitable
44.5%
Net Dividends
$106
Correlation S&P500
0.406
Sharpe Ratio
0.95
Sortino Ratio
1.66
Beta
0.73
Alpha
0.03
Leverage
1.46 Average
5.27 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.